Aquí hablan de la posibilidad de que el NGAD sustituya al F-35 por el tema costos de ciclo de vida (lo dudo porque dificilmente será más barato) y de las dificultades que la USAF está enfrentando para reducir los costes de ciclo de vida y el posible impacto en el programa:
https://breakingdefense.com/2021/01/rop ... cle-costs/WASHINGTON:
The F-35 fighter jet’s exorbitant life-cycle costs means the Air Force cannot afford to buy as many aircraft as it needs to fight and win a war today, which makes the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program all the more important, says outgoing Air Force acquisition czar Will Roper.
“I think the F-35 program
is a long way from being at a sustainment point that we need. I think it’s a
long way from being an affordable fighter that we can buy in bulk,” he told reporters today.
“That’s the reason why Next-Generation Air Dominance is so important to the Air Force,” he said. “It doesn’t just represent a next-generation fighter with bells and whistles that we will need in warfighting. It doesn’t just represent a completely different acquisition paradigm. It also represents a chance to design an airplane that is more sustainable than the F-35 if, in fact,
the F-35 cannot get its cost-per-flying-hour down.”
Roper would not be drawn on whether the Air Force was considering downsizing it plan to build a total inventory of 1,763 F-35s — with the Air Force requesting 48 aircraft in 2021, and planning to ask for the same annual buy for the foreseeable future, according to a study last month by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But what I can say is we’re not at the sustainment price point we need to be for a very large fleet. So, the next few years are critical for the F 35 program,” he added.
He seemed to suggest that, all things considered, perhaps the answer is to turn to NGAD to more rapidly build a wartime-fit fighter fleet.
“I very much hope for the future of the program, but I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t prepare for the worst. And so you can see that the movements that we have made in the TacAir portfolio have set the Air Force up to have options, so that our eggs are not in one proverbial basket,” he said.
WASHINGTON: The F-35 fighter jet’s exorbitant life-cycle costs means the Air Force cannot afford to buy as many aircraft as it needs to fight and win a war today, which makes the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program all the more important, says outgoing Air Force acquisition czar Will Roper.
“I think the F-35 program is a long way from being at a sustainment point that we need. I think it’s a long way from being an affordable fighter that we can buy in bulk,” he told reporters today.
“That’s the reason why Next-Generation Air Dominance is so important to the Air Force,” he said. “It doesn’t just represent a next-generation fighter with bells and whistles that we will need in warfighting. It doesn’t just represent a completely different acquisition paradigm. It also represents a chance to design an airplane that is more sustainable than the F-35 if, in fact, the F-35 cannot get its cost-per-flying-hour down.”
Roper would not be drawn on whether the Air Force was considering downsizing it plan to build a total inventory of 1,763 F-35s — with the Air Force requesting 48 aircraft in 2021, and planning to ask for the same annual buy for the foreseeable future, according to a study last month by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But what I can say is we’re not at the sustainment price point we need to be for a very large fleet. So, the next few years are critical for the F 35 program,” he added.
He seemed to suggest that, all things considered, perhaps the answer is to turn to NGAD to more rapidly build a wartime-fit fighter fleet.
“I very much hope for the future of the program, but I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t prepare for the worst. And so you can see that the movements that we have made in the TacAir portfolio have set the Air Force up to have options, so that our eggs are not in one proverbial basket,” he said.
....
“As to the quality, I think everyone feels pleased as the F-35 goes through testing, but it’s very much focused on Block Four as the next step that has to be taken. Quantity goes directly to whether the cost-per-flying-hour can come down,” he said. “And right now the F-35 has a good ‘sticker price,’ but
its cost of ownership is not where it needs to be, making the quantities that the Air Force may need to purchase in question.”
......
Long-time aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia said that, while “
the 1,763 USAF F-35A number has always been one of the stranger fictions in defense procurement” because the Air Force simply can’t afford that many no matter what, it’s way too early to count on NGAD as a replacement.
“
Basically, they can afford about 50 a year, given competing priorities, and assuming 20-25 years at that rate, the likely total is around 1,000-1,200,” he said in an email. “There are big variables, particularly regarding the next combat aircraft to enter procurement. Flying NGAD prototypes may or may not tell us something about that. We’ll need to learn more about how long it will take to missionize and get ready for production and service. But the idea that F-35 procurement could ramp down to divert cash for a Digital Century Series sounds very flawed to me.”
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